Newt Gengrich makes sense
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Posted on Jul 06, 2008 12:18 pm
dbmasters
Administrator Since: Apr 03, 2002
interesting
I disagree with him on the flex fuel bit, e85 should be stopped, but other than that, it's pretty interesting concepts, if not perfect, interesting.
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zekthedeadcowEat Spam before it eats YOU!!!Member
Since: May 11, 2002
Jul 06, 2008 03:13 pm interesting concepts... but
1. If you release the reserve on the market and it fails it would be a very ugly situation for the US to be in. Personally I think the only purpse of the reserve is to fuel the military in the event of a collapse. We shouldn't be trying to manipulate prices.
2. Oil shale... the rotten skim milk of the energy industry. There are reasons why it hasn't been developed. The main one is that it's crap.
3. Huge oils finds...totaling 3 years of oil at current usage... will only take 10 years to come on line... All of it is too little too late.
4. alternative fuels... yes. It's called mitigation. Global economic growth is unsustainable... so we need to figure out how much of it is salvageable. Ethanol is important because it is possible that oil becomes unavailable... like if we do something stupid like ...oh... try to crash the market with the Reserve...
5. Nuclear... I would really like to hope that becomes fusion... I was just watching "Dawn of the Dead" If in the 60's people thought nuclear power was so safe as to survive the zombie apocalypse... I'm sure it would work out ok as every country on the planet goes for uranium and thorium ...and then... you know... have a couple collapse into anarchy.
as a republican I should like Newt... he's a nice sounding guy... but I don't think politics is going to offer a good economic solution.
WaltChief Cook and Bottle WasherMember
Since: May 10, 2002
Jul 07, 2008 09:03 am We have got to get away from our dependancy on oil. I won't pretend how that will be accomplished and I won't bash any atempts. Per reserve and speculators, I shutter to think about the greed involved.
As far a Zombies; that was a self fuliflling prophesy. I see tons of them every rock gig I go to. Plenty of folks my age with no pupils. Fourty years of booze, sex, and drugs has created bucu shoe-ins for the next itteration of castings for zombie movies.
Jul 07, 2008 09:10 am I fail to see why we need as BIG of a reserve as we have, I understand the need for it, but seriously...
I do like some of the alternative attempts, personally, I am really looking into solar power for my home and am going to solar power my kids new playhouse just as a learning exercise for myself, solar power a light and fan or something of that nature.
Solar, wind, hydrogen, nuclear...there is hope, but right now we need oil, we have oil and we need to drill for it, damned be the hippies that ***** about it.
Jul 07, 2008 11:44 am Hey dB, I a little confused by these statements.
correct me if I am wrong, but, is this not a contradiction?
We have a massive reserve that is illegal to release, but, drilling for more is not?
Releasing the reserves would collapse the economy, but finding new and releasing would not?
Forgive me but, what is the difference? Either way, you are flooding the market with oil. And if we already have it, and we are finding more, then why would it collapse the economy? Because a few have bet on oil going up? So we have to have every other aspect of the economy fail for the few to stay afloat? WHAT?
Sorry. For me that doesn't make a lot of sense. Shipping companies closing down because they can not afford the fuel. Touring companies closing down due to the rise. Food on the rise because of the high shipping cost. New car sales on a huge decline, and factories closing down due to the high cost of fuel.
So, by keeping the price high for the few that have invested helps how?
For electricity, I agree that nuclear is a smarter choice. I just think that we need to find a better way of dealing with the waste. Which I am sure that they are working on. And solar is getting much better then before.
So there I agree. I just don't feel that the oil situation is being handled in a wise fashion.
Jul 07, 2008 11:55 am yeah, I think drilling or releasing reserve would help, but the story is starting to drill for more in new areas wouldn't helps for a few years, releasing the reserve would help immediately...
or something like that.
I won't even pretend to understand the business...I just know I am paying to damn much to fill my car.
zekthedeadcowEat Spam before it eats YOU!!!Member
Since: May 11, 2002
Jul 07, 2008 02:22 pm Basically as I understand it.
Our economy is based off of 2 things... our ability to manufacture and our natural resources which can be traded. Think of it as having a investment portfolio hat contains commodities. It is a hedge against inflation and can increase in value due to it's industrial use.
The current stockpile equals about 1 month of total US consumption... it has a current cash value of about $100 Billion ...at $140 a barrel... As the cost of oil increases it could probably go to $200 Billion. One month isn't a very long time for TOTAL US consumption... but it's REAL use is "strategic" ie...military and critical infrastructure... where it could probably last a year. Of course...personal autos wouldn't fit in to this equation. ...and a year is about just barely enough for us to cope with a radical change in lifestyle... so if a fuel shortage hits in the fall harvest we aren't totally screwed as we would be able to import food to make it though the winter (theoretically)
Now, some would argue that 100 Billion isn't close to the $9 Trillion national debt. Well, as mortgage lenders are learning, our debt isn't "our" problem... it's not our children's problem... it's the problem of the goofs that loaned us the money. It will only ever be our problem if the creditors build an army big enough to collect... it's like taking out a house loan to by guns...
Now, lets say we release the reserve... We take this stockpile which will last about a week on the global market and it successfully crashes the price down to $.50 ... whats going to happen a week later? We can't do it again... Short sellers will cover and then probably go long as we try to refill the reserve.
hen lest say it's actually successful at bankrupting these speculators... who are they? They're your ******* pension plans and insurance companies! ...so to cope with the loss...they arn't going to go bankrupt... they're going to raise your premiums... You can't drive witout insurance, you can't run a company without insurance... they'll just filter it down to the people who HAVE to pay.
####
Is this making sense? ...I sort of lost my train of thought... :)
Jul 07, 2008 02:59 pm I see a little of what you are trying to say. I can agree with you if the fact is that we only had enough in the reserve for only one month.
From every news add and commercial that I have seen (just here in the past two weeks) have made it sound as if we have way more then one months worth.
Also according to the one video that I have posted here, we have enough in reserve for the next 200 years.
Even the oil companies themselves have said that they have enough to last that long.
I am just biasing this off of what I have been told from the infomercials that the oil companies have ran.
From this information. No, non of this makes sense.
We are raising one aspect of the economy, to collapse another. All based off of a one month reserve that is in reality a much bigger reserve, so that a small group of investor won't lose their shirts. But everyone else gets the shaft?
And some how this is good for the military, and insurance companies?
Sorry dude, I know you went off your train of thought. But you lost me here.
Jul 07, 2008 03:02 pm Yeah, they make it sound like they are sitting on years of stockpile.
Every time the economy takes a crap in one aspect it helps another...home builders are getting killed, home remodellers are doing OK...it's all ed and flow...
Jul 07, 2008 03:16 pm Oh, don't get me wrong. I understand the example that you made here dB.
That one makes total sense. The thing that puzzles me is the one month reserve that Zek had mentioned.
We all know that there is more than that around. But, they seem content on only having a one month reserve.
So, why not increase that to a one year reserve, and base the average off of that.
This way, other transportation based companies won't take the hit so hard. Being that just about every company relies on transportation needs.
To only have the one month, seems a rather silly thing to put out there for the stock market. Being that they make it sound as if an oil crunch is something that the Saudi's control.
If we are sitting on top of massive oil fields that are already drilled. Then were is the crunch? And why not put more into the reserve?
I am not an investor. So, this to me seems a rather comical view of our economy. To help the few, to hurt the many, and this is good for the economy.
Man I am really lost now.
Jul 07, 2008 03:20 pm Yeah, I get lost in the details, and the one month reserve I doubt, but I have no knowledge either way.
There are also stories of tanker full of oil at ports that nobody wants to buy cuz their full...there are so many comspiracy theories and finger pointing it's hard for anybody that is a common citizen to really know anything about what is really going on.
That said, priced for inflation, gas really isn't that far out of line, we just got spoiled because it sat so stagnant for so long as inflation took up the price of everything else.
Jul 07, 2008 03:31 pm Ya, I know that our European brothers have been paying though the nose for gas for years now.
And, yes. We have had it easy over here for many years.
I think it's because of that. That is why it hurts so much for us. because it came to us in a very short period of time. It took less then a year to go from $2.50 to over $4.00.
No time to make adjustment in billing. I know that the company that I work for is hurting right now. We can not raise our rental or labor charges due to the fuel increases happening to us so quickly.
And I guess that is what pisses me off about this. That some have bet that the price would rise. And now them seem hell bent on making it higher in shorter periods of time.
At this rate, I don't think that the average Ma and Pa operation will survive. Which in turn, will cause prices to rise on just about everything else.
zekthedeadcowEat Spam before it eats YOU!!!Member
Since: May 11, 2002
Jul 07, 2008 03:38 pm Ah! There are two different "reserves"
I was talking about the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve" which is oil the Dept of Energy has bought and pumped into some salt caverns. That is what Newt is talking about releasing. It contains about 706 Million Barrels.
The other "reserve" is estimated oil in the ground.... these are called "Proven Reserves" One problem... is that many of the quoted reserves haven't changed for the past 20 years... like with almost every middle east country...So when somebody declares a reserve of 50billion barrels...pumps 30 billion...and still claims 50billion in reserves with no new discoveries you have to wonder.
As far as as those reserves go... There are different types of oils "Light Sweet" "Heavy Sour" and then tar ... gasoline is only a component of each barrel.
that image depicts "light sweet" I think
heavy sour contains less gasoline and more heavier oils...
"Tar sands" are tar... you can get gasoline out of it... but you better be ready to build roads and parking lots :)
Oil Shale... is "ok oil" ...the problem is that you have to strip mine it out and grind up the shale... and then basically boil the mixture in water... etc, etc...
Jul 07, 2008 03:51 pm Uh.... OK,...
So, what you are saying, is that based off of the two types of reserve. One is an amount that is actually stored above ground. The other is in the ground. And may or may not be the amount that they say it is. Even though the name of that reserve is called "Proven".
Excuse me while I stop my head from spinning.
So, the Proven reserve is what old Newt is talking about. Even though it may or may not be the amount that he thinks that it is, and this may or may not have an impact on our bringing the prices under control.
Is this correct?
God I hope not!
zekthedeadcowEat Spam before it eats YOU!!!Member
Since: May 11, 2002
Jul 07, 2008 05:39 pm no :) Newt is talking about the much smaller "Strategic Petroleum Reserve"
www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/index.html
the 'other' reserve is basically:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves
oil compay goes someplace and discovers oil... using whatever measurements they use they determine about how much oil is in this new location "that is extractable with current technology" #very important phrase#. That number becomes the "proven reserve" ... that allows them to estimates how profitable it will be to drill there. They invest some money and start drilling. As oil gets pumped out the "proven reserve is supposed to decrease to match what is pumped out. What happens is, a oil company will estimate the impact of future technology on the field... say... it's a 50billion barrel field... current technology may only allow 50% of that to be extracted (so a 25 billion barrel proven reserve) ... but if they factor in "future advancements in oil extraction" they might claim a lot more and still call it proven... and they can do that because a lot of countries consider it a state secret. :)
Jul 07, 2008 05:43 pm Sorry to keep adding to this, but, I just saw a story on the news that goes right with this.
GM has just announced that it will close 4 plants.
Chrysler will lay of 12,000 employees
And FORD is in trouble as well. (I didn't catch what they were doing.)
It kind of goes with what I was saying. With the sudden increase in fuel cost, it's creating a domino effect across the U.S.
More unemployment, and no end to the fuel increase. I think this is leading to a bad place.
zekthedeadcowEat Spam before it eats YOU!!!Member
Since: May 11, 2002
Jul 07, 2008 06:20 pm Quote:
I think this is leading to a bad place.
Congratulations on exiting 'denial' :)
A large amount of argument is focusing on 'how bad will it get.' Our economy needs energy...and it needs more energy to grow. We're pretty certain oil isn't going to grow...and everything else isn't in place to meet the difference... even the entire corn harvest would be an optimistic 35% of oil needs...and we still gotta eat :)... So the obvious outcome is that "it's going to go to a very bad place" - BUT - those who invest in alternative energy will be in a "not so bad place" ... and quite possibly ... for the people in the very bad place... it might get so "bad" that most of them "go away."
Jul 07, 2008 06:52 pm Denial. Isn't that a river.... Oh God I can't go there :)
I have been considering investing in the fuel cell. The only problem is, they are not bring the fuel cell here right now.
I also been looking at hydrogen. Once again, they don't seem to be in a hurry to develop that here as well.
The need is greater then ever, but the progress seems to be slower then ever.
One glimmer of hope is the solar development. With the new 3 spectrum panels. The energy output has increased by 35%. It's just a little out of my price range right now. To either purchase, or invest.
Jul 07, 2008 07:14 pm Correction: Some companies are only claiming 26.2% efficiency. While others are boosting 70% efficiency.
I not sure at the moment which claims are true. I does seem however that they are on the verge of major breakthrough.
Let's hope that it comes down in price sooner then later.
Jul 07, 2008 11:22 pm ::sigh:: remind me to not mention such things around zek, there are some things I only wanna know so much about...
:-D
WaltChief Cook and Bottle WasherMember
Since: May 10, 2002
Jul 08, 2008 09:14 am I truely don't have a clue either. Too many people chattering. No idea how much oil is actualy available. Last bit I caught on History channel was that scientists believe we have about 10 to 15 years at current consumption plus attrition. At that point we are faced with extracting the last 1/4 of the wells which will cost four times much to extract. Obviously, it's the God box again and their main concern is selling stuff that doesn't sell well. Humor involved is that they were pushing gheto boxes (escalade, exploder, etc.) Of course the up-shot of this airing was that per history we would end up in total global war over the remains of the oil instead of comming up to the challange of developing other energy sources. The thing that kills me is seeing 50% of traffic on the road some gheto box with one person in it. I saw this comming a few years back and traded my gheto boxes for reasonable cars for the times. I sacrificed zero comfort, I don't buy in on the driving being the great ego stroke, and I have suffered little impact from the oil prices. I also know that I am consuming less and doing my part to leave some for my grandchildren.
I don't proport my efforts as the "global answer", however I won't listen to anyone yapping "they" until that person has done their part.
Jul 08, 2008 09:22 am I still live on the contention that guys that hold cars in a bit too much importance are compensating for a small "package". :-D
Personally, I have always been a more practical "point a to point b" kind of thinker with cars. I've had a couple cool cars over the years, but to me it's always been simply transporation.
When I see people going to work day in and day out in Hummers and big ol things like that it just annoys me.
I feel like a slug buying a Minivan last week, but damn, we totally needed it.
WaltChief Cook and Bottle WasherMember
Since: May 10, 2002
Jul 08, 2008 09:48 am I don't totally judge books by their covers. Had I a heard of critters at home I would have a box too. I did when I had critters at home. A prime example would be two guys that I'm in one band with. Neither have children at home. Both have 2ea gheto boxes getting less than 16mpg. They whine constantly about how hard life is on them and how they are victoms of the economy. They were all over me about a gig comming up this weekend. First gig in a year that large amps are needed. I'm renting a van. Their all about oh see WE have vehicles that will haul our gear! I'm like ya baby!... at what cost. It will cost me $40.00. That's one weeks difference in what we spend on gas you morons! Back to whining. But we're cool! Yup, you're the coolest person you know, for sure.
