Collapse

Posted on

Frisco's Most Underrated
Member Since: Jan 28, 2003

So, I saw this movie Friday night called Collapse.





The movie raises the issue of energy scarcity, and in particular oil scarcity, based on the idea of peak oil.

Anyways, I'm curious what you all think about this idea of peak oil and it's consequences. Have you heard of it? Do you think we have already reached peak oil. Do you think its off in the future a ways. Do you think the ramifications are as bleak as some people say they are (food crises, ecoonomic meltdowns leading to infrastructure disentigration, etc. ... all leading to a societal collapse of sorts). Do you believe that technology offers a way out, and if so, do you think we already have the technology and just need to implement it? Do you think that the technology will still need to be invented/discovered?

I'm not trying to preach one thing or another, but the ideas are out there. Just want to see what all your thoughts on the issue are.

Oh, and highly reccomend the movie. Supposedly it will be available on "on demand" tv...

[ Back to Top ]


Czar of Midi
Administrator
Since: Apr 04, 2002


Dec 07, 2009 09:43 pm

Haven't watched it yet. But do plan on it. I want to hear what they have to say.

As for running out of oil. Not in our lifetime, its a matter of being able to drill or allowing the drilling in area's that still have huge cache's of oil. There are already technologies out there that can and in some cases are just starting to be used to pull the oil from sand such as the project being started in Canada and I do believe Alaska as well.

Are we headed for a meltdown, only if our government keeps doing the things the way they have been. And I'm not pointing fingers at one side, it is both sides as a complete hole to be blamed.

And yes, if the government would stop hiding or putting a hold on the technology that is being developed we might have much more to cheer about.

Just a quick not here, I'll come back with a more complete rant on my thought's.

http://www.reverbnation.com/2ndg
Member
Since: Nov 27, 2007


Dec 07, 2009 10:48 pm

man, i work close to the oil and gas industry and from what i know, they couldnt even guesstimate when it'll run out.

they are drilling and capping and re-capping wells everyday. there are that many newies being discovered its not funny.

i havent seen the movie so i dunno what its all about but if you want my opinion,
this topic here, and the whole CO2 carbon emissions wrecking the planet thing, is extremely misleading.

Something else goes on here big time. Im not saying i know what it is, but, a big struggle for power comes to mind.

forever the conspiricy theorist? how can you not be.

Frisco's Most Underrated
Member
Since: Jan 28, 2003


Dec 08, 2009 01:47 am

I agree that the science for determining how much oil is in the ground and is yet to be found is murky at best. One idea that is touched on in the movie is that we are currently tapping all the "low hanging fruit" so to speak, and that the harder to access wells will cost more both in terms of energy and money in order to harvest the oil. Once the cost (money or energy) to get the oil out of the ground exceeds the value of the oil extracted, there will be no motivation to get that oil. So, the idea is not that we will run out of oil, it's that we will run out of easy to reach/cheap oil.

Another statement mentioned in the film was about ANWR in Alaska. I can't remember exactly what was stated in the film, so I just did some research and according to a 1998 USGS survey, there is between 6 and 16 billion barrels of oil that can be extracted from ANWR. According to the USEIA, the US uses over 550 million barrels a month for the last 6 months. That means there is less than about an 18 month supply of oil in ANWR if we assume there are 10 billion extractable barrels there.

Also mentioned in the film is that the Canadian oil sands, aside from being an environmental disaster might actually cost more energy to develop than is gotten out of the oil. I have no idea if this is true or not, but I'll probably go see if I can find some info on it (prolly just opinions and no facts, I'm afraid, but we'll see).

Noize, I'm looking forward to a longer rant.

Deon, it's funny that you mention conspiracy theorist. I think lots of us are conspiracy theorists, it's just that our (not necessarily you and me, but people in general) conspiracys often oppose each other. It's as if no one really knows what's going on, and we all have different ideas.

http://www.reverbnation.com/2ndg
Member
Since: Nov 27, 2007


Dec 08, 2009 05:15 am

ah yes i agree this true, we all have these theories on whats really going on, but we more than likely dont have a clue.

maybe our conspiracy theories are based on decoy topics in the first place.
If they dont want you to know, then you dont know, simple.

that oil you were mentioning before, the Canadian stuff, im pretty sure is Shale oil.

again from my knowledge on the original oil, they are finding that much all the time its stupid. im hearing this from dudes i know that are on rigs, even from a guy that has a scout rig.
Thats why i kinda shake my head when there's all this talk of it running out.
obviously they are trying to milk it for all its worth, but the way they are going about things seems strange to me.

that, and the pretty much crapola theory of man made CO2 heating up the Earth has gotta make you wonder

my insignifigant theory is, there's is a big thing going on behind the scenes at the moment.

Administrator
Since: Apr 03, 2002


Dec 08, 2009 06:24 am

I agree with Deon, by and large us commoners know nothing, or little, for sure. We won't run out of oil in our lifetimes or our kids lifetimes, the problem with it is politics. We have plenty of oil in our end reach, but for political/special interest reasons we are not allowed to get at it.

I believe it is our job as good stewards of the planet we live on to be as efficient with our resources as possible, but I don't personally believe it's because of an eminent doomsday, it's just because it's the right thing to do.

I find it hard to believe "experts" when so many experts over my lifetime have been proven in the pockets of special interests, or simply proven to be considered an expert because of one particular "right place and the right time" situation...and when it comes to science, it seems to prove one thing, only to have it proven erroneous years later by a new study.

We as a family recycle, try to make efficient trips to the store and such to burn less gas, use efficient appliances, light bulbs and all that, but again, not cuz I'm a tree hugger or I think the world is "in trouble"...but just cuz it's a smart, responsible thing to do.

Eat Spam before it eats YOU!!!
Member
Since: May 11, 2002


Dec 08, 2009 07:47 am

I've been following peak oil for the past couple years along with precious metals.

A really good analogy of peak oil is having a really deep refrigerator full of milk... eventually you have to crawl in the back and what you pull out isn't so good anymore :)

We're building rigs like crazy... BUT we're not finding significant reserves...so we're merely building rigs on existing supplies which is basically 'squeezing the orange a bit harder'

The goal was to have technology increase the amount of extractable oil to keep up with demand... that is at best dangerous. The only 'real' replacement for fossil fuels is fusion and we won't even have test reactors done until around 2040.

here's what the GAO had to say www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

Something that makes the market hard to predict is investment holdings... oil prices came down so much because a lot of oil was being stored by large funds... when they needed the money they liquidated assets and everything came down even as the government was essentially printing an extra $100 Billion a week... the collapse in price triggers 'stoploss' trades which continues to add to the downward momentum (and IMO are artificial and should be factored out) also... if the price was initially very high there are 'short sale' positions in the market... adding additional pressure on the down trend and can make for steep corrections... especially if those short positions go bankrupt and default instead of buying back the positions they owe. That can lead to the 'market spot ' and physical price to become disjointed which happened to precious metals especially on the retail side.

The thing to consider is that peak oil or peak anything is just that... it's not 'running out' it's just not being able to make more than a certian amount... oil will never run out... because eventually supply and demand will lead to a price where it's more effective to use something else.

The PROBLEM is what would that world look like? Which this doc appears to talk about (I hadn't even heard of it actually :) ) If when 'peak oil' hit there's 8 billion people wanting food... how many people are we going to beable to produce for... would I rather keep my standard of living and run ethanol and let some starving folks on the other side of the world die? I think when we get to it the answer to that question will be 'yes' ...thats competition...and sometimes losing means you die. Otherwise where's the cutoff? 500billion people?




Frisco's Most Underrated
Member
Since: Jan 28, 2003


Dec 10, 2009 05:37 pm

Zek touches on something important in his last paragraph, which this movie also talks a lot about. Agriculture in the developed world relies on oil for pesticides, fertilizer, and of course harvesting and transportation. Without access to cheap oil, the world likely will not be able to feed as many people as are now fed. The huge population growth that the world has seen will not be sustainable. With that being said, I think it is important to start looking at the issue as soon as possible, regardless of whether or not you believe we will run out of oil soon. Because we will run out of it at some point.

Also, a couple weeks ago, a whistle blower who worked at the IEA (International Energy Agency) said the IEA was purposely inflating the worlds oil reserves in the numbers that it reports. The reasoning being that if the real numbers were released, financial markets would fall even further.

But like db said, who are we really supposed to believe. Especially when most of the world's major oil producing countries don't fully disclose their known reserves. Most everything is speculation to some degree.

http://www.reverbnation.com/2ndg
Member
Since: Nov 27, 2007


Dec 10, 2009 09:06 pm

The thing with consipracy theories, or just a theory in general on stuff like this is, they all float around, and people beleive them, but if you have a real good think about alot of them, they just dont make sense.
There are so many things going on usually to the contrary.

Like the whole population culling theory.

it all sounds sinister and certain actions of governments make you wonder,
but then you realise the extent the powers that be go to, to make sure people dont die and everyones catered for if they need help.

the whole things either designed as a giant mind**** or nothings happening at all.

i really think the whole mixed signals thing is because, there are too many companies out there with too much money calling the shots, Banks, Petroleum, Insurance, Religious, no one can touch them.
The governments just dont have the power they used to and is why i think there is big time **** going on behind the scenes.
I guess the govs are trying anything to regain some strength and there pullin out all the shots.




Eat Spam before it eats YOU!!!
Member
Since: May 11, 2002


Dec 10, 2009 10:40 pm

speaking of the IEA... they just revised their peak oil estimate to 2020... and those guys are the optimists :)

www.economist.com/busines...ory_id=15065719

Administrator
Since: Apr 03, 2002


Dec 11, 2009 07:05 am

Deon and I seem to be pretty much on the same page here...

I try to read, understand and support the science behind a lot of things, but there are so many things, whether "scientifically proven by peer reviewed [yada yada yada]" or logical conspiracy theory, is that sometimes they just simply don't make logical sense to me...the oil crisis and global warming are two of those topics and both seem hot right now. I understand what the "experts" are saying, but it just simply does not make sense to me, and makes it virtually impossible for me to believe or stand behind.

Adding to that issue there is also HUGE money standing to be made from both these issues by very powerful people, groups, or companies, making me doubt "fact" even more...since all the money they will make will be on MY back whether in the form of taxes or simply increased costs for things I need to live.

Related Forum Topics:



If you would like to participate in the forum discussions, feel free to register for your free membership.